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Parvoz vs Sardor Tursunzoda — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Parvoz
Parvoz
Preview
14:00
Sardor Tursunzoda
Sardor Tursunzoda
7/31/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 13
42%
Sardor Tursunzoda
model favours
35%22%42%
1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Parvoz35%
×Draw22%
Sardor Tursunzoda42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parvoz
1.66
Sardor Tursunzoda
1.83

Sardor Tursunzoda creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 7 away

creates per match

Parvoz
1.03
Sardor Tursunzoda
1.43

allows per match

Parvoz
2.23
Sardor Tursunzoda
2.29

finishing

Parvoz+0.00on par
Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parvoz ↓

Sardor Tursunzoda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Parvoz or draw
58%
Parvoz or Sardor Tursunzoda
78%
Draw or Sardor Tursunzoda
65%

Winning margin

Parvoz wins by 2+
18%
Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Parvoz 1+ goals
81%
Parvoz 2+ goals
49%
Parvoz 3+ goals
23%
Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals
84%
Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals
54%
Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Parvoz (draw refunded)
46%
Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parvoz at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

Sardor Tursunzoda away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parvoz attack 1.03 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 1.43 + Parvoz defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Parvoz scores more
35%
level
22%
Sardor Tursunzoda scores more
42%

Sardor Tursunzoda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sardor Tursunzoda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Parvoz
DLWLD
Tursunzoda
LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Parvoz face Sardor Tursunzoda (Vysshaya Liga)

Vysshaya Liga returns with Parvoz hosting Sardor Tursunzoda. Match starts July 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.