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Parva atomna vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Parva atomna
Parva atomna
FT
2 – 0
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
5/5/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 26Stadion Hristo Botev (Kozloduy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Parva atomna57%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parva atomna
2.00
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.15

Parva atomna creates 74% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 81 away

creates per match

Parva atomna
1.57
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.88

allows per match

Parva atomna
1.41
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.42

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw
78%
Parva atomna or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
43%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+
34%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals
86%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
59%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
32%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
68%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
32%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)
73%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.00

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Parva atomna scores more
57%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
22%

Parva atomna at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Parva atomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Parva atomna 2–0 Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Parva atomna beat Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev (Kozloduy).