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Partizani vs Teuta Durrës — Superliga 2018

Partizani
Partizani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
1/13/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 19Arena e Demave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Partizani46%
×Draw29%
Teuta Durrës25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizani
1.29
Teuta Durrës
0.86

Partizani creates 50% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 144 away

creates per match

Partizani
1.46
Teuta Durrës
0.93

allows per match

Partizani
0.79
Teuta Durrës
1.12

finishing

Partizani+0.00on par
Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizani ↓

Teuta Durrës →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Partizani or draw
75%
Partizani or Teuta Durrës
71%
Draw or Teuta Durrës
54%

Winning margin

Partizani wins by 2+
21%
Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Partizani 1+ goals
72%
Partizani 2+ goals
37%
Partizani 3+ goals
14%
Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
58%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
21%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Partizani (draw refunded)
65%
Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizani at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.79 · 146 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizani attack 1.46 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Teuta Durrës attack 0.93 + Partizani defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Partizani scores more
46%
level
29%
Teuta Durrës scores more
25%

Partizani at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Partizani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Partizani vs Teuta Durrës

Partizani beat Teuta Durrës 1-0 in Superliga on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Arena e Demave in Tirana.