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Pärnu vs Tallinna Kalev — Esiliiga A 2026

Pärnu
Pärnu
CANC
17:00
Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
7/2/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Pärnu29%
×Draw22%
Tallinna Kalev49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
1.53
Tallinna Kalev
2.02

Tallinna Kalev creates 32% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 21 away

creates per match

Pärnu
1.58
Tallinna Kalev
2.29

allows per match

Pärnu
1.74
Tallinna Kalev
1.48

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Tallinna Kalev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
51%
Pärnu or Tallinna Kalev
78%
Draw or Tallinna Kalev
71%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
14%
Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
78%
Pärnu 2+ goals
45%
Pärnu 3+ goals
20%
Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
87%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
60%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
38%
Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.58 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.53

Tallinna Kalev attack 2.29 + Pärnu defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pärnu scores more
29%
level
22%
Tallinna Kalev scores more
49%

Tallinna Kalev at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pärnu face Tallinna Kalev (Esiliiga A)

Esiliiga A returns with Pärnu hosting Tallinna Kalev. Match starts July 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.