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Pärnu vs Paide II — Esiliiga A 2026

Pärnu
Pärnu
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Paide II
Paide II
8/25/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 18Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pärnu42%
×Draw21%
Paide II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
1.99
Paide II
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 63 away

creates per match

Pärnu
1.58
Paide II
1.97

allows per match

Pärnu
1.74
Paide II
2.40

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
63%
Pärnu or Paide II
79%
Draw or Paide II
58%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
23%
Paide II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
86%
Pärnu 2+ goals
59%
Pärnu 3+ goals
32%
Paide II 1+ goals
84%
Paide II 2+ goals
55%
Paide II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
53%
Paide II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.58 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.99

Paide II attack 1.97 + Pärnu defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pärnu scores more
42%
level
21%
Paide II scores more
37%

Pärnu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pärnu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Pärnu 2–4 Paide II

Paide II beat Pärnu 4-2 in Esiliiga A on August 25, 2021.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.