Pärnu 0–1 Nõmme United: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Pärnu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nõmme United

6/30/2021

Esiliiga A · Round 10Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pärnu23%

×Draw19%

Nõmme United58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PärnuExpected goals in this matchNõmme United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.38

Pärnu

1.46

Nõmme United

2.38

Nõmme United creates 63% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 80 away

1.58

creates per match

3.01

1.74

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Pärnu

1.58

Nõmme United

3.01

allows per match

Pärnu

1.74

Nõmme United

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par

Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Nõmme United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw

42%

Pärnu or Nõmme United

81%

Draw or Nõmme United

77%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+

10%

Nõmme United wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals

77%

Pärnu 2+ goals

43%

Pärnu 3+ goals

18%

Nõmme United 1+ goals

91%

Nõmme United 2+ goals

68%

Nõmme United 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)

29%

Nõmme United (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 3.01, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.58 + Nõmme United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nõmme United attack 3.01 + Pärnu defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pärnu scores more

23%

level

19%

Nõmme United scores more

58%

Nõmme United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff