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Pärnu vs Flora II — Esiliiga A 2026

Pärnu
Pärnu
CANC
10:00
Flora II
Flora II
4/18/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 7Pärnu kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pärnu32%
×Draw22%
Flora II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
1.54
Flora II
1.88

Flora II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 125 away

creates per match

Pärnu
1.58
Flora II
2.03

allows per match

Pärnu
1.74
Flora II
1.50

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
Flora II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Flora II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
54%
Pärnu or Flora II
78%
Draw or Flora II
68%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
15%
Flora II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
79%
Pärnu 2+ goals
45%
Pärnu 3+ goals
20%
Flora II 1+ goals
85%
Flora II 2+ goals
56%
Flora II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
41%
Flora II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Flora II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.50 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.58 + Flora II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Flora II attack 2.03 + Pärnu defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pärnu scores more
32%
level
22%
Flora II scores more
46%

Flora II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pärnu face Flora II (Esiliiga A)

Esiliiga A returns with Pärnu hosting Flora II. Match starts April 18, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pärnu host Flora II at Pärnu kunstmuru.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.