Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Parndorf vs Gloggnitz — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Parndorf
Parndorf
Preview
18:00
Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
3/12/2027Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 19
Big match
45%
Parndorf
model favours
45%24%31%

Parndorf score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Parndorf45%
×Draw24%
Gloggnitz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parndorf
1.71
Gloggnitz
1.39

Parndorf creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

creates per match

Parndorf
1.32
Gloggnitz
1.74

allows per match

Parndorf
1.03
Gloggnitz
2.10

finishing

Parndorf+0.00on par
Gloggnitz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parndorf ↓

Gloggnitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Parndorf or draw
69%
Parndorf or Gloggnitz
76%
Draw or Gloggnitz
55%

Winning margin

Parndorf wins by 2+
24%
Gloggnitz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Parndorf 1+ goals
82%
Parndorf 2+ goals
51%
Parndorf 3+ goals
24%
Gloggnitz 1+ goals
75%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
40%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Parndorf (draw refunded)
59%
Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parndorf at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Gloggnitz away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parndorf attack 1.32 + Gloggnitz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gloggnitz attack 1.74 + Parndorf defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Parndorf scores more
45%
level
24%
Gloggnitz scores more
31%

Parndorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Parndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Parndorf’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Parndorf 1 vs Gloggnitz 2
  • Parndorf win just 29% against the top half (vs 78% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Parndorf
WLWWW
Gloggnitz
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Parndorf face Gloggnitz (Regionalliga - Ost)

Regionalliga - Ost returns with Parndorf hosting Gloggnitz. Match starts March 12, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.