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Parma vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

Parma
Parma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Mehdi Bourabia 90' (OG)
9/25/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 5Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Parma36%
×Draw26%
Sassuolo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.32
Sassuolo
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

creates per match

Parma
0.98
Sassuolo
1.23

allows per match

Parma
1.52
Sassuolo
1.66

finishing

Parma-0.02on par
Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Parma or draw
62%
Parma or Sassuolo
74%
Draw or Sassuolo
64%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
16%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
73%
Parma 2+ goals
38%
Parma 3+ goals
15%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
75%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
40%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
48%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.66 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Parma scores more
36%
level
26%
Sassuolo scores more
38%

Sassuolo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47
Andrea ConsigliSassuoloSassuolo · G
8.2

Match Events

20'
Gervinho
46'
Hamed Junior Traorè← Manuel Locatelli
67'
Gastón Brugman← Matteo Scozzarella
67'
Grégoire Defrel← Jérémie Boga
72'
Pedro Obiang
74'
Roberto IngleseMissed penalty
78'
Andreas Cornelius← Roberto Inglese
85'
Mehdi Bourabia← Francesco Magnanelli
88'
Mattia Sprocati← Dejan Kulusevski
89'
Riccardo Gagliolo
90'
Mehdi BourabiaOwn goal
90'
Simone Iacoponi

Possession

29%Parma

Shots

10Parma

Pass accuracy

45%Parma

Statistics

ParmaSassuolo
Overview
29%Possession71%
10Total Shots12
5Corners4
20Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots12
5On Target3
4Off Target4
1Blocked5
7Inside Box5
3Outside Box7
Passing
29%Possession71%
261Total Passes628
179Accurate Passes539
69%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
20Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Parma vs Sassuolo

Parma beat Sassuolo 1-0 in Serie A on September 25, 2019.

Goals: Mehdi Bourabia (90' o.g.).

Sassuolo controlled possession (71%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.