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Parma vs Lazio — Serie A 2026

Parma
Parma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lazio
Lazio
Felipe Caicedo 41'
2/9/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 23Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Parma33%
×Draw27%
Lazio40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.15
Lazio
1.31

Lazio creates 14% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Parma
0.98
Lazio
1.09

allows per match

Parma
1.52
Lazio
1.31

finishing

Parma-0.02on par
Lazio-0.05on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Parma or draw
60%
Parma or Lazio
73%
Draw or Lazio
67%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
13%
Lazio wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
68%
Parma 2+ goals
32%
Parma 3+ goals
11%
Lazio 1+ goals
73%
Lazio 2+ goals
38%
Lazio 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
45%
Lazio (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + Lazio defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Lazio attack 1.09 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Parma scores more
33%
level
27%
Lazio scores more
40%

Lazio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
Francesco AcerbiLazioLazio · D
8.1

Match Events

35'
Juraj Kucka
41'
Felipe Caicedo
56'
Felipe Caicedo
57'
Manuel Lazzari← Adam Marušić
58'
Lucas Leiva
61'
Dejan Kulusevski← Gastón Brugman
62'
Joaquín Correa← Felipe Caicedo
67'
Gianluca Caprari
67'
Mattia Sprocati← Gianluca Caprari
79'
Giuseppe Pezzella← Riccardo Gagliolo
82'
Danilo Cataldi← Lucas Leiva
90'
Bruno Alves

Possession

46%Parma

Shots

19Parma

Pass accuracy

49%Parma

Statistics

ParmaLazio
Overview
46%Possession54%
19Total Shots23
7Corners6
13Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots23
4On Target5
11Off Target11
4Blocked7
10Inside Box17
9Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
390Total Passes453
316Accurate Passes383
81%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Serie A: Parma 0–1 Lazio

Lazio beat Parma 1-0 in Serie A on February 9, 2020.

Goals: Felipe Caicedo (41').

Lazio controlled possession (54%) and registered 23 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.