Parma 0–4 Juventus: Result & Stats | Serie A

Parma

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Juventus

12/19/2020

Serie A · Round 13Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Parma26%

×Draw26%

Juventus48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParmaExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.48

Parma

1.00

Juventus

1.48

Juventus creates 48% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 36 away

1.01

creates per match

1.45

1.51

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Parma

1.01

Juventus

1.45

allows per match

Parma

1.51

Juventus

0.99

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Parma-0.05on par

Juventus-0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Parma or draw

52%

Parma or Juventus

74%

Draw or Juventus

74%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+

9%

Juventus wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals

63%

Parma 2+ goals

26%

Parma 3+ goals

8%

Juventus 1+ goals

77%

Juventus 2+ goals

43%

Juventus 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)

35%

Juventus (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.51 · 25 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.99 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 1.01 + Juventus defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Juventus attack 1.45 + Parma defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Parma scores more

26%

level

26%

Juventus scores more

48%

Juventus at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff