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Parma vs Cagliari — Serie B 2018

Parma
Parma
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cagliari
Cagliari
4/22/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 34Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Parma39%
×Draw29%
Cagliari32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.14
Cagliari
1.01

Parma creates 13% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 21 away

creates per match

Parma
1.47
Cagliari
1.10

allows per match

Parma
0.91
Cagliari
0.81

finishing

Parma+0.00on par
Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Cagliari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Parma or draw
68%
Parma or Cagliari
71%
Draw or Cagliari
61%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
16%
Cagliari wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
68%
Parma 2+ goals
32%
Parma 3+ goals
11%
Cagliari 1+ goals
64%
Cagliari 2+ goals
27%
Cagliari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
55%
Cagliari (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.91 · 58 matches

Cagliari away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 1.47 + Cagliari defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cagliari attack 1.10 + Parma defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Parma scores more
39%
level
29%
Cagliari scores more
32%

Parma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Parma vs Cagliari

Parma beat Cagliari 2-1 in Serie B on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.