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Parma U20 vs Fiorentina U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Parma U20
Parma U20
Preview
10:00
Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina U20
1/16/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 20
Big match
42%
Parma U20
model favours
42%25%33%

Fiorentina U20 raise their game against the top half — 62% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Parma U2042%
×Draw25%
Fiorentina U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma U20
1.53
Fiorentina U20
1.33

Parma U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 39 away

creates per match

Parma U20
1.70
Fiorentina U20
1.62

allows per match

Parma U20
1.05
Fiorentina U20
1.36

finishing

Parma U20+0.00on par
Fiorentina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma U20 ↓

Fiorentina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Parma U20 or draw
67%
Parma U20 or Fiorentina U20
75%
Draw or Fiorentina U20
58%

Winning margin

Parma U20 wins by 2+
21%
Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Parma U20 1+ goals
78%
Parma U20 2+ goals
45%
Parma U20 3+ goals
20%
Fiorentina U20 1+ goals
74%
Fiorentina U20 2+ goals
38%
Fiorentina U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Parma U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma U20 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Fiorentina U20 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma U20 attack 1.70 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.53

Fiorentina U20 attack 1.62 + Parma U20 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Parma U20 scores more
42%
level
25%
Fiorentina U20 scores more
33%

Parma U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Parma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Parma U20 2 vs Fiorentina U20 1
  • Parma U20 win just 30% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LWDWW
U20
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Parma U20 vs Fiorentina U20 — Match Preview

Parma U20 face Fiorentina U20 on January 16, 2027 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.