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Parma U20 vs Empoli U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Parma U20
Parma U20
Preview
10:00
Empoli U20
Empoli U20
3/6/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 28
55%
Parma U20
model favours
55%23%22%

Empoli U20 raise their game against the top half — 28% wins vs the upper half, only 24% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Parma U2055%
×Draw23%
Empoli U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma U20
1.85
Empoli U20
1.08

Parma U20 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Parma U20
1.70
Empoli U20
1.10

allows per match

Parma U20
1.05
Empoli U20
2.00

finishing

Parma U20+0.00on par
Empoli U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma U20 ↓

Empoli U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Parma U20 or draw
78%
Parma U20 or Empoli U20
77%
Draw or Empoli U20
45%

Winning margin

Parma U20 wins by 2+
32%
Empoli U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Parma U20 1+ goals
84%
Parma U20 2+ goals
55%
Parma U20 3+ goals
28%
Empoli U20 1+ goals
66%
Empoli U20 2+ goals
29%
Empoli U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Parma U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Empoli U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma U20 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Empoli U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma U20 attack 1.70 + Empoli U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Empoli U20 attack 1.10 + Parma U20 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Parma U20 scores more
55%
level
23%
Empoli U20 scores more
22%

Parma U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Parma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Parma U20 and Empoli U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LWDWW
U20
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Parma U20 vs Empoli U20 — Match Preview

Parma U20 face Empoli U20 on March 6, 2027 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.