Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Stade Brestois 29

Paris Saint Germain

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Stade Brestois 29

2/7/2024

Coupe de France · Round of 16Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Paris Saint Germain55%

×Draw23%

Stade Brestois 2922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris Saint GermainExpected goals in this matchStade Brestois 29

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.07

Paris Saint Germain

1.85

Stade Brestois 29

1.07

Paris Saint Germain creates 73% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

2.45

creates per match

1.88

0.27

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain

2.45

Stade Brestois 29

1.88

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain

0.27

Stade Brestois 29

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.00on par

Stade Brestois 29+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Stade Brestois 29 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw

78%

Paris Saint Germain or Stade Brestois 29

77%

Draw or Stade Brestois 29

45%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+

32%

Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals

84%

Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals

55%

Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals

28%

Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals

66%

Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals

29%

Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)

72%

Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Stade Brestois 29 away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.45 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.88 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more

55%

level

23%

Stade Brestois 29 scores more

22%

Paris Saint Germain at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff