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Pardubice W vs Slovácko W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Pardubice W
Pardubice W
FT
0 – 1
Slovácko W
Slovácko W
4/2/20211. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 13Stadion K Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Pardubice W15%
×Draw17%
Slovácko W68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice W
1.15
Slovácko W
2.58

Slovácko W creates 124% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 60 away

creates per match

Pardubice W
0.72
Slovácko W
1.90

allows per match

Pardubice W
3.27
Slovácko W
1.57

finishing

Pardubice W+0.00on par
Slovácko W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice W ↓

Slovácko W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Pardubice W or draw
32%
Pardubice W or Slovácko W
83%
Draw or Slovácko W
85%

Winning margin

Pardubice W wins by 2+
6%
Slovácko W wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Pardubice W 1+ goals
68%
Pardubice W 2+ goals
32%
Pardubice W 3+ goals
11%
Slovácko W 1+ goals
92%
Slovácko W 2+ goals
72%
Slovácko W 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Pardubice W (draw refunded)
18%
Slovácko W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice W at home — creates 0.72, concedes 3.27 · 40 matches

Slovácko W away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice W attack 0.72 + Slovácko W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.15

Slovácko W attack 1.90 + Pardubice W defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pardubice W scores more
15%
level
17%
Slovácko W scores more
68%

Slovácko W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Slovácko W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pardubice W vs Slovácko W

Slovácko W beat Pardubice W 1-0 in 1. Liga Women on April 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion K Vinici in Pardubice.