Pardubice 1–1 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Pardubice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slavia Praha

E. Tischler 38'

P. Musa 51'

9/12/2020

Czech Liga · Round 3Stadion Ďolíček

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Pardubice24%

×Draw25%

Slavia Praha51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PardubiceExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.61

Pardubice

1.01

Slavia Praha

1.61

Slavia Praha creates 59% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 121 away

1.16

creates per match

1.95

1.27

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Pardubice

1.16

Slavia Praha

1.95

allows per match

Pardubice

1.27

Slavia Praha

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw

49%

Pardubice or Slavia Praha

75%

Draw or Slavia Praha

76%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+

9%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals

64%

Pardubice 2+ goals

27%

Pardubice 3+ goals

8%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

80%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

48%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)

32%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 103 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.16 + Slavia Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Slavia Praha attack 1.95 + Pardubice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pardubice scores more

24%

level

25%

Slavia Praha scores more

51%

Slavia Praha at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

David Hovorka

37'

Nicolae Stanciu

38'

E. Tischler

46'

I. Traoré← P. Olayinka

46'

P. Musa← S. Tecl

49'

50'

51'

53'

54'

66'

66'

Ewerton← Cadu

76'

O. Dorley← L. Masopust

79'

Jan Jeřábek

89'

L. Pfeifer← T. Čelůstka

89'

89'

90'

90'

Shots

Statistics

PardubiceSlavia

Overview

3Total Shots16

1Corners10

18Fouls13

Shots

3Total Shots16

1On Target6

2Off Target10

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides4

Match Recap: Pardubice vs Slavia Praha

Pardubice and Slavia Praha drew 1-1 in Czech Liga on September 12, 2020.

Goals: E. Tischler (38'), P. Musa (51').

The match was played at Stadion Ďolíček in Praha.

Pardubice vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Pardubice vs Slavia Praha