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Pardubice U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Pardubice U19
Pardubice U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
4/18/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 19Ohrazenice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Pardubice U1944%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Plzeň U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice U19
1.71
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.46

Pardubice U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Pardubice U19
1.80
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.57

allows per match

Pardubice U19
1.35
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.62

finishing

Pardubice U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pardubice U19 or draw
67%
Pardubice U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19
77%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19
56%

Winning margin

Pardubice U19 wins by 2+
23%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pardubice U19 1+ goals
82%
Pardubice U19 2+ goals
51%
Pardubice U19 3+ goals
24%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
43%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.62 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice U19 attack 1.80 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.71

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.57 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pardubice U19 scores more
44%
level
23%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
33%

Pardubice U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pardubice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Pardubice U19 3–1 Viktoria Plzeň U19

Pardubice U19 beat Viktoria Plzeň U19 3-1 in 1. Liga U19 on April 18, 2023.

The match was played at Ohrazenice UMT in Pardubice.