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Pardubice U19 vs Slovácko U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Pardubice U19
Pardubice U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Slovácko U19
Slovácko U19
3/11/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 17Ohrazenice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Pardubice U1949%
×Draw23%
Slovácko U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice U19
1.84
Slovácko U19
1.33

Pardubice U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Pardubice U19
1.80
Slovácko U19
1.30

allows per match

Pardubice U19
1.35
Slovácko U19
1.89

finishing

Pardubice U19+0.00on par
Slovácko U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice U19 ↓

Slovácko U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pardubice U19 or draw
72%
Pardubice U19 or Slovácko U19
77%
Draw or Slovácko U19
51%

Winning margin

Pardubice U19 wins by 2+
27%
Slovácko U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pardubice U19 1+ goals
84%
Pardubice U19 2+ goals
55%
Pardubice U19 3+ goals
28%
Slovácko U19 1+ goals
74%
Slovácko U19 2+ goals
38%
Slovácko U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Slovácko U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice U19 attack 1.80 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.84

Slovácko U19 attack 1.30 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pardubice U19 scores more
49%
level
23%
Slovácko U19 scores more
28%

Pardubice U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pardubice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Pardubice U19 1–2 Slovácko U19

Slovácko U19 beat Pardubice U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ohrazenice UMT in Pardubice.