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Pardubice U19 vs Mladá Boleslav U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Pardubice U19
Pardubice U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Mladá Boleslav U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
8/19/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 3Ohrazenice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Pardubice U1949%
×Draw22%
Mladá Boleslav U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice U19
1.92
Mladá Boleslav U19
1.42

Pardubice U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Pardubice U19
1.80
Mladá Boleslav U19
1.48

allows per match

Pardubice U19
1.35
Mladá Boleslav U19
2.04

finishing

Pardubice U19+0.00on par
Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice U19 ↓

Mladá Boleslav U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pardubice U19 or draw
71%
Pardubice U19 or Mladá Boleslav U19
78%
Draw or Mladá Boleslav U19
51%

Winning margin

Pardubice U19 wins by 2+
28%
Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pardubice U19 1+ goals
85%
Pardubice U19 2+ goals
57%
Pardubice U19 3+ goals
30%
Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals
76%
Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals
41%
Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)
63%
Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Mladá Boleslav U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.04 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice U19 attack 1.80 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.92

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.48 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pardubice U19 scores more
49%
level
22%
Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more
29%

Pardubice U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pardubice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pardubice U19 vs Mladá Boleslav U19

Mladá Boleslav U19 beat Pardubice U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on August 19, 2022.

The match was played at Ohrazenice UMT in Pardubice.