Pardubice U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19

Pardubice U19

Preview

14:00

Baník Ostrava U19

10/10/2026

1. Liga U19 · Round 10

Big match

41%

Pardubice U19

model favours

41%23%36%

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

64%

over 2.5 goals

65%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Pardubice U1941%

×Draw23%

Baník Ostrava U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pardubice U19Expected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.58

Pardubice U19

1.70

Baník Ostrava U19

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 77 away

1.80

creates per match

1.81

1.35

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Pardubice U19

1.80

Baník Ostrava U19

1.81

allows per match

Pardubice U19

1.35

Baník Ostrava U19

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice U19+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Pardubice U19 or draw

64%

Pardubice U19 or Baník Ostrava U19

77%

Draw or Baník Ostrava U19

59%

Winning margin

Pardubice U19 wins by 2+

21%

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pardubice U19 1+ goals

82%

Pardubice U19 2+ goals

51%

Pardubice U19 3+ goals

24%

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals

79%

Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals

47%

Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice U19 attack 1.80 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pardubice U19 scores more

41%

level

23%

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more

36%

Pardubice U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pardubice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

U19

WLLLL

U19

WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff