Paraguay W 1–4 Chile W: Result & Stats

Paraguay W

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Chile W

Claudia Martínez 81'

I. Olave 47'

F. Caniguán 45+1'

D. Bareiro 40' (OG)

Y. Aedo 19'

7/12/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Estadio Ypané

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Paraguay W32%

×Draw25%

Chile W43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paraguay WExpected goals in this matchChile W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.53

Paraguay W

1.29

Chile W

1.53

Chile W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

1.63

1.44

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Paraguay W

1.00

Chile W

1.63

allows per match

Paraguay W

1.44

Chile W

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paraguay W+0.00on par

Chile W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paraguay W ↓

Chile W →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Paraguay W or draw

57%

Paraguay W or Chile W

75%

Draw or Chile W

68%

Winning margin

Paraguay W wins by 2+

14%

Chile W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Paraguay W 1+ goals

72%

Paraguay W 2+ goals

37%

Paraguay W 3+ goals

14%

Chile W 1+ goals

78%

Chile W 2+ goals

45%

Chile W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Paraguay W (draw refunded)

43%

Chile W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Paraguay W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Chile W away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Paraguay W attack 1.00 + Chile W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chile W attack 1.63 + Paraguay W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Paraguay W scores more

32%

level

25%

Chile W scores more

43%

Chile W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chile W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Y. Aedo↳ I. Olave

36'

D. Garcete

40'

D. BareiroOwn goal

45+1'

F. Caniguán↳ R. Balmaceda

46'

F. Godoy← D. Garcete

46'

E. Cartamán← A. Peralta

46'

D. Sánchez← N. Perruchino

47'

C. Barbosa

47'

I. Olave↳ Y. Aedo

53'

Y. Acuna

70'

K. Fuentes← C. Salfate

70'

F. Araya← F. Caniguán

78'

M. Cortés← Y. López

78'

J. Grez← Y. Acuña

78'

F. Ramírez← R. Balmaceda

81'

Claudia Martínez

82'

Rosana Alegre← M. Segovia

83'

K. Guerrero← I. Olave

88'

J. Grez

90+6'

Paraguay

Chile

▼

▼

⚽A

⚽A

▼

Olave

▼

Acuña

▼

Salfate

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Carlos Bona

46'▲F. Godoy←▼D. Garcete

46'▲E. Cartamán←▼A. Peralta

46'▲D. Sánchez←▼N. Perruchino

82'▲Rosana Alegre←▼M. Segovia

Paraguay W substitutes

15Godoy10Cartamán17Sánchez23Alegre24Escurra2Salinas11Benítez21Martínez18Barreto13López12Ortiz14Riso22Saleb

Manager: L. Mena

70'▲K. Fuentes←▼C. Salfate

70'▲F. Araya←▼F. Caniguán

78'▲M. Cortés←▼Y. López

78'▲J. Grez←▼Y. Acuña

78'▲F. Ramírez←▼R. Balmaceda

83'▲K. Guerrero←▼I. Olave

Chile W substitutes

13Fuentes15Araya8Cortés14Grez5Ramírez18Guerrero12Bórquez20Figueroa4Pino21Groff3Figueroa