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Paradou AC vs MC Oran — Ligue 1 2018

Paradou AC
Paradou AC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
MC Oran
MC Oran
11/10/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Dar El Beïda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Paradou AC49%
×Draw27%
MC Oran24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradou AC
1.40
MC Oran
0.88

Paradou AC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 122 away

creates per match

Paradou AC
1.41
MC Oran
0.78

allows per match

Paradou AC
0.98
MC Oran
1.38

finishing

Paradou AC+0.00on par
MC Oran+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradou AC ↓

MC Oran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Paradou AC or draw
76%
Paradou AC or MC Oran
73%
Draw or MC Oran
51%

Winning margin

Paradou AC wins by 2+
24%
MC Oran wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paradou AC 1+ goals
75%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
41%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
17%
MC Oran 1+ goals
59%
MC Oran 2+ goals
22%
MC Oran 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Paradou AC (draw refunded)
67%
MC Oran (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradou AC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 123 matches

MC Oran away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradou AC attack 1.41 + MC Oran defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

MC Oran attack 0.78 + Paradou AC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Paradou AC scores more
49%
level
27%
MC Oran scores more
24%

Paradou AC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paradou AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paradou AC vs MC Oran

Paradou AC beat MC Oran 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Dar El Beïda in Algiers.