Para Hills Knights 2–1 West Adelaide

Para Hills Knights

FT

2 – 1

West Adelaide

4/6/2019

South Australia NPL · Round 6The Paddocks (Adelaide)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Para Hills Knights40%

×Draw23%

West Adelaide37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Para Hills KnightsExpected goals in this matchWest Adelaide

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.59

Para Hills Knights

1.67

West Adelaide

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 29 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

2.18

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Para Hills Knights

1.18

West Adelaide

1.00

allows per match

Para Hills Knights

2.18

West Adelaide

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Para Hills Knights ↓

West Adelaide →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Para Hills Knights or draw

63%

Para Hills Knights or West Adelaide

77%

Draw or West Adelaide

60%

Winning margin

Para Hills Knights wins by 2+

20%

West Adelaide wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Para Hills Knights 1+ goals

81%

Para Hills Knights 2+ goals

50%

Para Hills Knights 3+ goals

23%

West Adelaide 1+ goals

80%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

47%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)

52%

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Para Hills Knights at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 50 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Para Hills Knights attack 1.18 + West Adelaide defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

West Adelaide attack 1.00 + Para Hills Knights defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Para Hills Knights scores more

40%

level

23%

West Adelaide scores more

37%

Para Hills Knights at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Para Hills Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff