Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

PAOK vs PAS Giannina — Super League 1 2018

PAOK
PAOK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PAS Giannina
PAS Giannina
3/13/2022Super League 1Super League 1 · Championship Round - 1Stadio Toumbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

PAOK61%
×Draw23%
PAS Giannina16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAOK
1.79
PAS Giannina
0.79

PAOK creates 127% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 83 away

creates per match

PAOK
1.99
PAS Giannina
0.88

allows per match

PAOK
0.71
PAS Giannina
1.59

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par
PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

PAS Giannina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

PAOK or draw
84%
PAOK or PAS Giannina
77%
Draw or PAS Giannina
39%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+
35%
PAS Giannina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals
83%
PAOK 2+ goals
53%
PAOK 3+ goals
26%
PAS Giannina 1+ goals
55%
PAS Giannina 2+ goals
19%
PAS Giannina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)
79%
PAS Giannina (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 137 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.99 + PAS Giannina defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + PAOK defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

PAOK scores more
61%
level
23%
PAS Giannina scores more
16%

PAOK at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: PAOK 1–0 PAS Giannina

PAOK beat PAS Giannina 1-0 in Super League 1 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Toumbas in Thessaloníki.