PAOK 0–1 PAS Giannina: Result & Stats

PAOK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PAS Giannina

Pedro Conde 86'

9/12/2021

Super League 1 · Round 1Stadio Toumbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

PAOK60%

×Draw23%

PAS Giannina16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOKExpected goals in this matchPAS Giannina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.78

PAOK

1.75

PAS Giannina

0.78

PAOK creates 124% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 90 away

1.99

creates per match

0.86

0.71

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

PAOK

1.99

PAS Giannina

0.86

allows per match

PAOK

0.71

PAS Giannina

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

PAS Giannina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

PAOK or draw

84%

PAOK or PAS Giannina

77%

Draw or PAS Giannina

40%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+

34%

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals

83%

PAOK 2+ goals

52%

PAOK 3+ goals

25%

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

54%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

18%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)

79%

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 137 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.52 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.99 + PAS Giannina defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.75

PAS Giannina attack 0.86 + PAOK defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

PAOK scores more

60%

level

23%

PAS Giannina scores more

16%

PAOK at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Rodrigo Erramuspe

45+1'

Marvin Peersman

61'

J. Kurtič← Douglas Augusto

61'

A. Mitriță← S. Kagawa

64'

Vieirinha

75'

C. Akpom← T. Murg

75'

Sidcley← Vieirinha

80'

A. Mendes Moreira← J. Perea

81'

Stefan Schwab

86'

Pedro Conde

89'

A. Lolis← J. Schneider

90+5'

Yury Lodygin

90+2'

N. Milinceanu← Pedro Conde

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PAOKPAS

Overview

64%Possession36%

9Total Shots3

8Corners4

16Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots3

2On Target1

7Off Target2

Passing

64%Possession36%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls21

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3