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PAOK vs PAS Giannina — Super League 1 2018

PAOK
PAOK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
PAS Giannina
PAS Giannina
O. El Kaddouri 90+1'
K. Świderski 52'
R. Erramuspe 31'
11/22/2020Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 9Stadio Toumbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

PAOK60%
×Draw23%
PAS Giannina16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAOK
1.75
PAS Giannina
0.78

PAOK creates 124% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 90 away

creates per match

PAOK
1.99
PAS Giannina
0.86

allows per match

PAOK
0.71
PAS Giannina
1.52

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par
PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

PAS Giannina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PAOK or draw
84%
PAOK or PAS Giannina
77%
Draw or PAS Giannina
40%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+
34%
PAS Giannina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals
83%
PAOK 2+ goals
52%
PAOK 3+ goals
25%
PAS Giannina 1+ goals
54%
PAS Giannina 2+ goals
18%
PAS Giannina 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)
79%
PAS Giannina (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 137 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.52 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.99 + PAS Giannina defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.75

PAS Giannina attack 0.86 + PAOK defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

PAOK scores more
60%
level
23%
PAS Giannina scores more
16%

PAOK at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
C. Eleftheriadis← S. Križman
30'
Anderson Esiti
31'
R. Erramuspe↳ F. Castro
45'
Rodrigo Erramuspe
46'
O. El Kaddouri← A. Esiti
46'
C. Tzolis← Vieirinha
46'
D. Biseswar← T. Murg
52'
K. Świderski
57'
Rodrigo Erramuspe
57'
Rodrigo Erramuspe
62'
Juan Domínguez← J. Leo
75'
Alexandros Kartalis
76'
A. Čolak← A. Pereira
80'
A. Lolis← A. Kartalis
84'
Andrija Živković
84'
Omar El Kaddouri
90'
Epameinondas Pantelakis
90+6'
M. Wagué← K. Świderski
90+1'
O. El Kaddouri↳ José Crespo

Possession

65%PAOK

Shots

15PAOK

Statistics

PAOKPAS
Overview
65%Possession35%
15Total Shots2
13Corners1
16Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots2
7On Target1
8Off Target1
Passing
65%Possession35%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: PAOK vs PAS Giannina

PAOK beat PAS Giannina 2-1 in Super League 1 on November 22, 2020.

Goals: R. Erramuspe (31'), K. Świderski (52'), O. El Kaddouri (90+1').

PAOK controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 2.

The match was played at Stadio Toumbas in Thessaloníki.