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PAOK vs Panetolikos — Super League 1 2018

PAOK
PAOK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Panetolikos
Panetolikos
11/12/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 11Stadio Toumbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

PAOK60%
×Draw23%
Panetolikos17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAOK
1.74
Panetolikos
0.79

PAOK creates 120% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 135 away

creates per match

PAOK
1.99
Panetolikos
0.87

allows per match

PAOK
0.71
Panetolikos
1.49

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par
Panetolikos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

Panetolikos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PAOK or draw
83%
PAOK or Panetolikos
77%
Draw or Panetolikos
40%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+
34%
Panetolikos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals
82%
PAOK 2+ goals
52%
PAOK 3+ goals
25%
Panetolikos 1+ goals
55%
Panetolikos 2+ goals
19%
Panetolikos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)
78%
Panetolikos (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 137 matches

Panetolikos away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.49 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.99 + Panetolikos defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.74

Panetolikos attack 0.87 + PAOK defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

PAOK scores more
60%
level
23%
Panetolikos scores more
17%

PAOK at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: PAOK 2–1 Panetolikos

PAOK beat Panetolikos 2-1 in Super League 1 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Toumbas in Thessaloníki.