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PAOK vs AEK Athens FC — Super League 1 2018

PAOK
PAOK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
2/11/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 22Stadio Toumbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

PAOK46%
×Draw26%
AEK Athens FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAOK
1.50
AEK Athens FC
1.12

PAOK creates 34% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 137 away

creates per match

PAOK
1.99
AEK Athens FC
1.53

allows per match

PAOK
0.71
AEK Athens FC
1.00

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par
AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

PAOK or draw
72%
PAOK or AEK Athens FC
74%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
54%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+
23%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals
78%
PAOK 2+ goals
44%
PAOK 3+ goals
19%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
67%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
31%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)
62%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 137 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.99 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

AEK Athens FC attack 1.53 + PAOK defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PAOK scores more
46%
level
26%
AEK Athens FC scores more
28%

PAOK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: PAOK 1–1 AEK Athens FC

PAOK and AEK Athens FC drew 1-1 in Super League 1 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Toumbas in Thessaloníki.