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Panthères vs Esae — Championnat National 2019

Panthères
Panthères
PST
15:00
Esae
Esae
5/17/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 27Stade Municipal de Djougou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Panthères35%
×Draw31%
Esae34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panthères
1.02
Esae
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 34 away

creates per match

Panthères
1.09
Esae
1.21

allows per match

Panthères
0.79
Esae
0.94

finishing

Panthères+0.00on par
Esae+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthères ↓

Esae →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Panthères or draw
66%
Panthères or Esae
69%
Draw or Esae
65%

Winning margin

Panthères wins by 2+
13%
Esae wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Panthères 1+ goals
64%
Panthères 2+ goals
27%
Panthères 3+ goals
8%
Esae 1+ goals
63%
Esae 2+ goals
26%
Esae 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Panthères (draw refunded)
51%
Esae (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthères at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.79 · 94 matches

Esae away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthères attack 1.09 + Esae defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Esae attack 1.21 + Panthères defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Panthères scores more
35%
level
31%
Esae scores more
34%

Panthères at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Panthères will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Panthères host Esae

May 17, 2020: Panthères take on Esae in Championnat National. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Panthères host Esae at Stade Municipal de Djougou.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.