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Panthère vs Yafoot — Elite One 2019

Panthère
Panthère
Canc
00:00
Yafoot
Yafoot
7/2/2022Elite OneElite One · Relegation Play-offs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Panthère43%
×Draw28%
Yafoot29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panthère
1.32
Yafoot
1.02

Panthère creates 29% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 31 away

creates per match

Panthère
1.23
Yafoot
0.97

allows per match

Panthère
1.08
Yafoot
1.42

finishing

Panthère+0.00on par
Yafoot+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthère ↓

Yafoot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Panthère or draw
71%
Panthère or Yafoot
72%
Draw or Yafoot
57%

Winning margin

Panthère wins by 2+
20%
Yafoot wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Panthère 1+ goals
73%
Panthère 2+ goals
38%
Panthère 3+ goals
15%
Yafoot 1+ goals
64%
Yafoot 2+ goals
27%
Yafoot 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Panthère (draw refunded)
60%
Yafoot (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthère at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 64 matches

Yafoot away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthère attack 1.23 + Yafoot defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Yafoot attack 0.97 + Panthère defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Panthère scores more
43%
level
28%
Yafoot scores more
29%

Panthère at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Panthère will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Panthère vs Yafoot — Match Preview

Panthère face Yafoot on July 2, 2022 in this Elite One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.