Panserraikos 1–1 Panetolikos: Result & Stats

Panserraikos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Panetolikos

Jefté Betancor 9'

Miguel Luís 63'

4/23/2025

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 4Dimotiko Stadio Serron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Panserraikos34%

×Draw28%

Panetolikos37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanserraikosExpected goals in this matchPanetolikos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.19

Panserraikos

1.13

Panetolikos

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

0.86

creates per match

0.75

1.64

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Panserraikos

0.86

Panetolikos

0.75

allows per match

Panserraikos

1.64

Panetolikos

1.39

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

Panserraikos-0.43scores less

Panetolikos+0.54scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panserraikos ↓

Panetolikos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Panserraikos or draw

63%

Panserraikos or Panetolikos

72%

Draw or Panetolikos

66%

Winning margin

Panserraikos wins by 2+

14%

Panetolikos wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Panserraikos 1+ goals

68%

Panserraikos 2+ goals

31%

Panserraikos 3+ goals

11%

Panetolikos 1+ goals

70%

Panetolikos 2+ goals

33%

Panetolikos 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Panserraikos (draw refunded)

48%

Panetolikos (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panserraikos at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 7 matches

Panetolikos away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panserraikos attack 0.86 + Panetolikos defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.13

Panetolikos attack 0.75 + Panserraikos defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Panserraikos scores more

34%

level

28%

Panetolikos scores more

37%

Panetolikos at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Panetolikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

L. Chaves

Panetolikos · G

9.5

Match Events

9'

Jefté Betancor

34'

Georgios Liavas

34'

Georgios LiavasCard upgrade

41'

C. Mavrias← M. Bakakis

45+3'

Juan Camilo SalazarMissed penalty

46'

F. Pérez← I. Bouzoukis

52'

Volnei Feltes

60'

C. Belevonis← A. Apostolopoulos

61'

A. Liasos← S. Oméonga

63'

Miguel Luís

74'

B. Galván← Volnei Feltes

77'

E. Pantelakis← C. Shielis

77'

A. Roa← Daniel Lajud

85'

M. Deletić← P. Staikos

90+4'

Jefté Betancor

90+4'

Miguel Luís

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PanserraikosPanetolikos

Overview

66%Possession34%

18Total Shots14

7Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots14

11On Target6

5Off Target5

2Blocked3

10Inside Box12

8Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

534Total Passes273

481Accurate Passes205

90%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves9

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Panserraikos vs Panetolikos

Panserraikos and Panetolikos drew 1-1 in Super League 1 on April 23, 2025.

Goals: Jefté Betancor (9'), Miguel Luís (63').

Panserraikos controlled possession (66%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Serres.

Panserraikos vs Panetolikos — Super League 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Panserraikos vs Panetolikos