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Panserraikos vs Atromitos — Super League 1 2018

Panserraikos
Panserraikos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atromitos
Atromitos
2/24/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 24Dimotiko Stadio Serron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Panserraikos37%
×Draw27%
Atromitos37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panserraikos
1.27
Atromitos
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 130 away

creates per match

Panserraikos
1.13
Atromitos
1.08

allows per match

Panserraikos
1.47
Atromitos
1.42

finishing

Panserraikos+0.00on par
Atromitos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panserraikos ↓

Atromitos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Panserraikos or draw
63%
Panserraikos or Atromitos
73%
Draw or Atromitos
63%

Winning margin

Panserraikos wins by 2+
16%
Atromitos wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Panserraikos 1+ goals
72%
Panserraikos 2+ goals
36%
Panserraikos 3+ goals
14%
Atromitos 1+ goals
72%
Atromitos 2+ goals
36%
Atromitos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Panserraikos (draw refunded)
50%
Atromitos (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panserraikos at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

Atromitos away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panserraikos attack 1.13 + Atromitos defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atromitos attack 1.08 + Panserraikos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Panserraikos scores more
37%
level
27%
Atromitos scores more
37%

Panserraikos at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Panserraikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panserraikos vs Atromitos

Panserraikos and Atromitos drew 0-0 in Super League 1 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Serres.