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Panevėžys vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Panevėžys
Panevėžys
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Banga
Banga
3/16/2024A LygaA Lyga · Round 4Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Panevėžys46%
×Draw27%
Banga26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys
1.37
Banga
0.96

Panevėžys creates 43% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 111 away

creates per match

Panevėžys
1.44
Banga
0.87

allows per match

Panevėžys
1.04
Banga
1.30

finishing

Panevėžys+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Panevėžys or draw
74%
Panevėžys or Banga
73%
Draw or Banga
54%

Winning margin

Panevėžys wins by 2+
22%
Banga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Panevėžys 1+ goals
75%
Panevėžys 2+ goals
40%
Panevėžys 3+ goals
16%
Banga 1+ goals
62%
Banga 2+ goals
25%
Banga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys (draw refunded)
64%
Banga (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.04 · 127 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.30 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys attack 1.44 + Banga defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.37

Banga attack 0.87 + Panevėžys defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Panevėžys scores more
46%
level
27%
Banga scores more
26%

Panevėžys at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A Lyga: Panevėžys 0–1 Banga

Banga beat Panevėžys 1-0 in A Lyga on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas in Panevėžys.