Panevėžys II 1–0 Neptūną Klaipėda: Result & Stats

Panevėžys II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Neptūną Klaipėda

4/16/2023

1 Lyga · Round 6Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Panevėžys II28%

×Draw22%

Neptūną Klaipėda50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchNeptūną Klaipėda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

2.03

Panevėžys II

1.47

Neptūną Klaipėda

2.03

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 38% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 79 away

1.47

creates per match

2.05

2.01

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Neptūną Klaipėda

2.05

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

50%

Panevėžys II or Neptūną Klaipėda

78%

Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda

72%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

13%

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

77%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

43%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

18%

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals

87%

Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals

60%

Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

36%

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.47 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 2.05 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

28%

level

22%

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more

50%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff