Panetolikos 1–2 PAS Giannina: Result & Stats

Panetolikos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

PAS Giannina

G. Ariyibi 16'

G. Kargas 84'

S. Križman 54' (pen)

2/8/2021

Super League 1 · Round 21Stadio Panetolikou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Panetolikos40%

×Draw28%

PAS Giannina32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanetolikosExpected goals in this matchPAS Giannina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Panetolikos

1.25

PAS Giannina

1.07

Panetolikos creates 17% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 90 away

0.99

creates per match

0.86

1.29

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Panetolikos

0.99

PAS Giannina

0.86

allows per match

Panetolikos

1.29

PAS Giannina

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panetolikos+0.00on par

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panetolikos ↓

PAS Giannina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Panetolikos or draw

68%

Panetolikos or PAS Giannina

72%

Draw or PAS Giannina

60%

Winning margin

Panetolikos wins by 2+

18%

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Panetolikos 1+ goals

71%

Panetolikos 2+ goals

36%

Panetolikos 3+ goals

13%

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

66%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

29%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Panetolikos (draw refunded)

56%

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panetolikos at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.29 · 134 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.52 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panetolikos attack 0.99 + PAS Giannina defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

PAS Giannina attack 0.86 + Panetolikos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Panetolikos scores more

40%

level

28%

PAS Giannina scores more

32%

Panetolikos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Panetolikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

G. Ariyibi↳ N. Karelis

37'

Jorge Díaz

37'

F. Brener← V. Naumets

46'

N. Melissas← C. Knett

46'

A. Liasos← F. Castro

46'

S. Križman← J. Leo

54'

S. KrižmanPenalty

58'

Angelos Liasos

61'

Juan Dominguez

68'

F. Mazurek← A. Tahar

74'

Frederico Duarte← N. Karelis

74'

N. Vergos← G. Ariyibi

75'

Hélder Barbosa

83'

Dálcio← A. Tsigaras

83'

N. Milinceanu← G. Pamlidis

84'

G. Kargas↳ A. Kartalis

88'

R. Erramuspe← A. Kartalis

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PanetolikosPAS

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots5

4Corners5

15Fouls19

Shots

6Total Shots5

2On Target3

4Off Target2

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4