Panetolikos vs PAOK — Super League 1 2018
PAOK have won 9 of the last 10 meetings
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 132+ matches
Panetolikos25%PAOK49%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
PAOK creates 50% more chances
Season form · 132 home / 134 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Panetolikos ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Panetolikos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.29 · 132 matches
PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 134 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Panetolikos attack 0.97 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00
PAOK attack 1.72 + Panetolikos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
PAOK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Style contrast — Panetolikos play Direct / counter-attacking, PAOK Possession-dominant
- 36% of PAOK’s goals come after the 75th minute
- PAOK outscore their xG (2.0 vs 1.4 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesHead-to-head
10 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Panetolikos host PAOK on Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the Super League 1 2018/2019 season.
Preview: Panetolikos host PAOK
September 19, 2026: Panetolikos take on PAOK in Super League 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Panetolikos host PAOK at Panetolikos Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.