Pandurii TG JIU 5–2 Ripensia Timisoara

Pandurii TG JIU

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Ripensia Timisoara

9/22/2018

Liga II · Round 8Stadionul Municipal Tudor Vladimirescu - Teren II (Sintetic) (Târgu Jiu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pandurii TG JIU35%

×Draw26%

Ripensia Timisoara39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pandurii TG JIUExpected goals in this matchRipensia Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.38

Pandurii TG JIU

1.31

Ripensia Timisoara

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 70 away

1.12

creates per match

1.03

1.72

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Pandurii TG JIU

1.12

Ripensia Timisoara

1.03

allows per match

Pandurii TG JIU

1.72

Ripensia Timisoara

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pandurii TG JIU ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pandurii TG JIU or draw

61%

Pandurii TG JIU or Ripensia Timisoara

74%

Draw or Ripensia Timisoara

65%

Winning margin

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+

16%

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals

73%

Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals

38%

Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals

14%

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

75%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

40%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)

48%

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pandurii TG JIU at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pandurii TG JIU attack 1.12 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pandurii TG JIU scores more

35%

level

26%

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

39%

Ripensia Timisoara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff