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Panda B5 vs Groupe Bazano — Ligue 1 2019

Panda B5
Panda B5
FT
0 – 1
Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
11/7/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade de Kikula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Panda B536%
×Draw30%
Groupe Bazano35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panda B5
1.06
Groupe Bazano
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 73 away

creates per match

Panda B5
0.85
Groupe Bazano
0.70

allows per match

Panda B5
1.38
Groupe Bazano
1.27

finishing

Panda B5+0.00on par
Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panda B5 ↓

Groupe Bazano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Panda B5 or draw
65%
Panda B5 or Groupe Bazano
70%
Draw or Groupe Bazano
64%

Winning margin

Panda B5 wins by 2+
14%
Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Panda B5 1+ goals
65%
Panda B5 2+ goals
29%
Panda B5 3+ goals
9%
Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
65%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
28%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Panda B5 (draw refunded)
51%
Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panda B5 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panda B5 attack 0.85 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + Panda B5 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Panda B5 scores more
36%
level
30%
Groupe Bazano scores more
35%

Panda B5 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Panda B5 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panda B5 vs Groupe Bazano

Groupe Bazano beat Panda B5 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Kikula in Likasi.