Panda B5 1–1 Don Bosco: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Panda B5

FT

1 – 1

Don Bosco

10/10/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade de Kikula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Panda B532%

×Draw30%

Don Bosco38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panda B5Expected goals in this matchDon Bosco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.11

Panda B5

1.00

Don Bosco

1.11

Don Bosco creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 96 away

0.85

creates per match

0.85

1.38

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Panda B5

0.85

Don Bosco

0.85

allows per match

Panda B5

1.38

Don Bosco

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panda B5+0.00on par

Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panda B5 ↓

Don Bosco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Panda B5 or draw

62%

Panda B5 or Don Bosco

70%

Draw or Don Bosco

68%

Winning margin

Panda B5 wins by 2+

12%

Don Bosco wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Panda B5 1+ goals

63%

Panda B5 2+ goals

26%

Panda B5 3+ goals

8%

Don Bosco 1+ goals

67%

Don Bosco 2+ goals

30%

Don Bosco 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Panda B5 (draw refunded)

46%

Don Bosco (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panda B5 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panda B5 attack 0.85 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Panda B5 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Panda B5 scores more

32%

level

30%

Don Bosco scores more

38%

Don Bosco at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Don Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff