Panathinaikos 2–1 PAOK: Result & Stats

Panathinaikos

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

PAOK

T. Jedvaj 31'

M. Pantovic 20'

G. Konstantelias 61'

11/9/2025

Super League 1 · Round 10Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Panathinaikos39%

×Draw27%

PAOK34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanathinaikosExpected goals in this matchPAOK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.23

Panathinaikos

1.34

PAOK

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 134 away

1.66

creates per match

1.72

0.74

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Panathinaikos

1.66

PAOK

1.72

allows per match

Panathinaikos

0.74

PAOK

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panathinaikos+0.00on par

PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panathinaikos ↓

PAOK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Panathinaikos or draw

66%

Panathinaikos or PAOK

73%

Draw or PAOK

61%

Winning margin

Panathinaikos wins by 2+

18%

PAOK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Panathinaikos 1+ goals

74%

Panathinaikos 2+ goals

39%

Panathinaikos 3+ goals

15%

PAOK 1+ goals

71%

PAOK 2+ goals

35%

PAOK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Panathinaikos (draw refunded)

54%

PAOK (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panathinaikos at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panathinaikos attack 1.66 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.34

PAOK attack 1.72 + Panathinaikos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Panathinaikos scores more

39%

level

27%

PAOK scores more

34%

Panathinaikos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Panathinaikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

T. Jedvaj

Panathinaikos · D

7.9

Match Events

4'

Filip Đuričić

20'

M. Pantovic↳ G. Kyriakopoulos

31'

T. Jedvaj↳ Tete

46'

Giorgos Giakoumakis

50'

F. Mladenovic← G. Kyriakopoulos

58'

A. Bianco← M. Ozdoev

59'

Taison← K. Despodov

61'

G. Konstantelias↳ Taison

68'

F. Chalov← G. Giakoumakis

72'

Manolis Siopis

72'

Taison

74'

A. Bakasetas← Tete

74'

A. Gnezda Cerin← M. Siopis

75'

L. Ivanusec← G. Konstantelias

85'

D. Mancini← M. Pantovic

85'

F. Pellistri← F. Djuricic

90+5'

Adam Gnezda Čerin

90+2'

Filip Mladenović

90+2'

Alessandro Bianco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PanathinaikosPAOK

Overview

33%Possession67%

6Total Shots6

3Corners5

16Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots6

3On Target1

2Off Target4

1Blocked1

2Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

33%Possession67%

253Total Passes517

167Accurate Passes440

66%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1