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Panathinaikos vs OFI — Super League 1 2018

Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OFI
OFI
12/3/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 13Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Panathinaikos56%
×Draw24%
OFI20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panathinaikos
1.67
OFI
0.88

Panathinaikos creates 90% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 130 away

creates per match

Panathinaikos
1.68
OFI
1.01

allows per match

Panathinaikos
0.74
OFI
1.65

finishing

Panathinaikos+0.00on par
OFI+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panathinaikos ↓

OFI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Panathinaikos or draw
80%
Panathinaikos or OFI
76%
Draw or OFI
44%

Winning margin

Panathinaikos wins by 2+
31%
OFI wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Panathinaikos 1+ goals
81%
Panathinaikos 2+ goals
50%
Panathinaikos 3+ goals
23%
OFI 1+ goals
59%
OFI 2+ goals
22%
OFI 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Panathinaikos (draw refunded)
74%
OFI (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panathinaikos at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.74 · 137 matches

OFI away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.65 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panathinaikos attack 1.68 + OFI defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

OFI attack 1.01 + Panathinaikos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Panathinaikos scores more
56%
level
24%
OFI scores more
20%

Panathinaikos at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Panathinaikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Panathinaikos 4–0 OFI

Panathinaikos beat OFI 4-0 in Super League 1 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Athens.