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Panadería Pulido vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ibarra
Ibarra
2/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Panadería Pulido58%
×Draw23%
Ibarra19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panadería Pulido
1.78
Ibarra
0.91

Panadería Pulido creates 96% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 77 away

creates per match

Panadería Pulido
1.57
Ibarra
0.88

allows per match

Panadería Pulido
0.93
Ibarra
1.99

finishing

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par
Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panadería Pulido ↓

Ibarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Panadería Pulido or draw
81%
Panadería Pulido or Ibarra
77%
Draw or Ibarra
42%

Winning margin

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
33%
Ibarra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
83%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
53%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
26%
Ibarra 1+ goals
60%
Ibarra 2+ goals
23%
Ibarra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
75%
Ibarra (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panadería Pulido at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panadería Pulido attack 1.57 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Panadería Pulido defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Panadería Pulido scores more
58%
level
23%
Ibarra scores more
19%

Panadería Pulido at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Panadería Pulido 5–0 Ibarra

Panadería Pulido beat Ibarra 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo in Vega de San Mateo.