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Pamplona vs Cirbonero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Pamplona
Pamplona
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cirbonero
Cirbonero
2/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 21Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Pamplona45%
×Draw26%
Cirbonero29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pamplona
1.46
Cirbonero
1.10

Pamplona creates 33% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 92 away

creates per match

Pamplona
1.55
Cirbonero
1.35

allows per match

Pamplona
0.86
Cirbonero
1.37

finishing

Pamplona+0.00on par
Cirbonero+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamplona ↓

Cirbonero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pamplona or draw
71%
Pamplona or Cirbonero
74%
Draw or Cirbonero
55%

Winning margin

Pamplona wins by 2+
22%
Cirbonero wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pamplona 1+ goals
77%
Pamplona 2+ goals
43%
Pamplona 3+ goals
18%
Cirbonero 1+ goals
67%
Cirbonero 2+ goals
30%
Cirbonero 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pamplona (draw refunded)
61%
Cirbonero (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamplona at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 109 matches

Cirbonero away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamplona attack 1.55 + Cirbonero defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cirbonero attack 1.35 + Pamplona defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pamplona scores more
45%
level
26%
Cirbonero scores more
29%

Pamplona at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pamplona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pamplona vs Cirbonero

Pamplona and Cirbonero drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea in Lizasoáin.