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Paloma vs Tus Dassendorf — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Paloma
Paloma
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tus Dassendorf
Tus Dassendorf
H. Sabah 85'
M. Niemann 72' (pen)
M. Harnik 27' (pen), 14'
4/7/2023Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 34Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Paloma32%
×Draw23%
Tus Dassendorf45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paloma
1.43
Tus Dassendorf
1.73

Tus Dassendorf creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 8 away

creates per match

Paloma
1.98
Tus Dassendorf
1.75

allows per match

Paloma
1.72
Tus Dassendorf
0.88

finishing

Paloma+0.00on par
Tus Dassendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paloma ↓

Tus Dassendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Paloma or draw
55%
Paloma or Tus Dassendorf
77%
Draw or Tus Dassendorf
68%

Winning margin

Paloma wins by 2+
14%
Tus Dassendorf wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Paloma 1+ goals
76%
Paloma 2+ goals
42%
Paloma 3+ goals
17%
Tus Dassendorf 1+ goals
82%
Tus Dassendorf 2+ goals
52%
Tus Dassendorf 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Paloma (draw refunded)
42%
Tus Dassendorf (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paloma at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

Tus Dassendorf away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paloma attack 1.98 + Tus Dassendorf defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tus Dassendorf attack 1.75 + Paloma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paloma scores more
32%
level
23%
Tus Dassendorf scores more
45%

Tus Dassendorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tus Dassendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
M. Harnik
27'
M. HarnikPenalty
72'
M. NiemannPenalty
85'
H. Sabah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paloma vs Tus Dassendorf

Paloma and Tus Dassendorf drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Hamburg on April 7, 2023.

Goals: M. Harnik (14', 27' pen), M. Niemann (72' pen), H. Sabah (85').

The match was played at Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz in Hamburg.