Paloma 3–1 Süderelbe: Result & Stats

Paloma

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Süderelbe

M. Niemann 89', 55'

H. Sabah 14'

N. Reinecke 90+4'

9/3/2023

Oberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 6Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paloma37%

×Draw20%

Süderelbe43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalomaExpected goals in this matchSüderelbe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

2.27

Paloma

2.08

Süderelbe

2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 6 away

1.98

creates per match

2.83

1.72

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Paloma

1.98

Süderelbe

2.83

allows per match

Paloma

1.72

Süderelbe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paloma+0.00on par

Süderelbe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paloma ↓

Süderelbe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Paloma or draw

57%

Paloma or Süderelbe

80%

Draw or Süderelbe

63%

Winning margin

Paloma wins by 2+

20%

Süderelbe wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Paloma 1+ goals

87%

Paloma 2+ goals

61%

Paloma 3+ goals

34%

Süderelbe 1+ goals

90%

Süderelbe 2+ goals

66%

Süderelbe 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Paloma (draw refunded)

46%

Süderelbe (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paloma at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

Süderelbe away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paloma attack 1.98 + Süderelbe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Süderelbe attack 2.83 + Paloma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Paloma scores more

37%

level

20%

Süderelbe scores more

43%

Süderelbe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Süderelbe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

H. Sabah

55'

M. Niemann

72'

M. Ercetin

89'

M. Niemann

90+4'

N. Reinecke

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff