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Paloma vs Niendorfer TSV — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Paloma
Paloma
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Niendorfer TSV
Niendorfer TSV
K. Lohrke 64'
M. Niemann 43'
M. Werner 27'
T. Kruger 49'
A. Ahmadi 15'
9/30/2022Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 12Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Paloma39%
×Draw22%
Niendorfer TSV39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paloma
1.85
Niendorfer TSV
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 18 away

creates per match

Paloma
1.98
Niendorfer TSV
1.94

allows per match

Paloma
1.72
Niendorfer TSV
1.72

finishing

Paloma+0.00on par
Niendorfer TSV+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paloma ↓

Niendorfer TSV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Paloma or draw
61%
Paloma or Niendorfer TSV
78%
Draw or Niendorfer TSV
61%

Winning margin

Paloma wins by 2+
21%
Niendorfer TSV wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Paloma 1+ goals
84%
Paloma 2+ goals
55%
Paloma 3+ goals
28%
Niendorfer TSV 1+ goals
84%
Niendorfer TSV 2+ goals
54%
Niendorfer TSV 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Paloma (draw refunded)
51%
Niendorfer TSV (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paloma at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

Niendorfer TSV away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paloma attack 1.98 + Niendorfer TSV defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.85

Niendorfer TSV attack 1.94 + Paloma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Paloma scores more
39%
level
22%
Niendorfer TSV scores more
39%

Paloma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Paloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
A. Ahmadi
27'
M. Werner
43'
M. Niemann
49'
T. Kruger
54'
L. Meyer
54'
L. Meyer
64'
K. Lohrke

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paloma vs Niendorfer TSV

Paloma beat Niendorfer TSV 3-2 in Oberliga - Hamburg on September 30, 2022.

Goals: A. Ahmadi (15'), M. Werner (27'), M. Niemann (43'), T. Kruger (49'), K. Lohrke (64').

The match was played at Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz in Hamburg.