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Paloma vs HEBC — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Paloma
Paloma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HEBC
HEBC
8/14/2022Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 3Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Paloma47%
×Draw23%
HEBC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paloma
1.77
HEBC
1.36

Paloma creates 30% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 7 away

creates per match

Paloma
1.98
HEBC
1.00

allows per match

Paloma
1.72
HEBC
1.57

finishing

Paloma+0.00on par
HEBC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paloma ↓

HEBC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Paloma or draw
70%
Paloma or HEBC
77%
Draw or HEBC
53%

Winning margin

Paloma wins by 2+
25%
HEBC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Paloma 1+ goals
83%
Paloma 2+ goals
53%
Paloma 3+ goals
26%
HEBC 1+ goals
74%
HEBC 2+ goals
39%
HEBC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Paloma (draw refunded)
61%
HEBC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paloma at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

HEBC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paloma attack 1.98 + HEBC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.77

HEBC attack 1.00 + Paloma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Paloma scores more
47%
level
23%
HEBC scores more
30%

Paloma at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Paloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paloma vs HEBC

Paloma and HEBC drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Hamburg on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz in Hamburg.