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Paloma vs Harksheide — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Paloma
Paloma
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Harksheide
Harksheide
M. Werner 10'
M. Blunck 8'
E. Asante 64'
Jerry Danif 55'
L. Schulz 21'
2/14/2023Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 23Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Paloma54%
×Draw19%
Harksheide26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paloma
2.43
Harksheide
1.67

Paloma creates 46% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 8 away

creates per match

Paloma
1.98
Harksheide
1.63

allows per match

Paloma
1.72
Harksheide
2.88

finishing

Paloma+0.00on par
Harksheide+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paloma ↓

Harksheide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Paloma or draw
74%
Paloma or Harksheide
81%
Draw or Harksheide
46%

Winning margin

Paloma wins by 2+
34%
Harksheide wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Paloma 1+ goals
91%
Paloma 2+ goals
69%
Paloma 3+ goals
43%
Harksheide 1+ goals
81%
Harksheide 2+ goals
50%
Harksheide 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Paloma (draw refunded)
67%
Harksheide (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paloma at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

Harksheide away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paloma attack 1.98 + Harksheide defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.43

Harksheide attack 1.63 + Paloma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Paloma scores more
54%
level
19%
Harksheide scores more
26%

Paloma at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Paloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Blunck
10'
M. Werner
21'
L. Schulz
55'
Jerry Danif
64'
E. Asante
84'
L. Mandelkau

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paloma vs Harksheide

Harksheide beat Paloma 3-2 in Oberliga - Hamburg on February 14, 2023.

Goals: M. Blunck (8'), M. Werner (10'), L. Schulz (21'), Jerry Danif (55'), E. Asante (64').

The match was played at Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz in Hamburg.