Palmeiras U20 vs XV de Jaú U20

Palmeiras U20

Preview

18:00

XV de Jaú U20

8/14/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 12

69%

Palmeiras U20

model favours

69%17%14%

Palmeiras U20 have scored in 23 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

69%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Palmeiras U2069%

×Draw17%

XV de Jaú U2014%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras U20Expected goals in this matchXV de Jaú U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.04

Palmeiras U20

2.52

XV de Jaú U20

1.04

Palmeiras U20 creates 142% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

3.96

creates per match

1.55

0.52

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Palmeiras U20

3.96

XV de Jaú U20

1.55

allows per match

Palmeiras U20

0.52

XV de Jaú U20

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

XV de Jaú U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw

86%

Palmeiras U20 or XV de Jaú U20

83%

Draw or XV de Jaú U20

31%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+

47%

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals

92%

Palmeiras U20 2+ goals

71%

Palmeiras U20 3+ goals

45%

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals

65%

XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals

28%

XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)

83%

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 3.96, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

XV de Jaú U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 3.96 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.52

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.55 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more

69%

level

17%

XV de Jaú U20 scores more

14%

Palmeiras U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Palmeiras U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight
XV de Jaú U20 score first in only 25% of matches
Both sides lean high-scoring (65% and 67% over 2.5)
Both teams score in 71% of XV de Jaú U20’s matches
67% of XV de Jaú U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
65% of Palmeiras U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

DDWDW

U20

DLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff